侯恩科,荣统瑞,卫勇锋,等. 基于LSSA-BP神经网络的煤层瓦斯含量预测方法研究[J]. 煤矿安全,2023,54(11):55−61. doi: 10.13347/j.cnki.mkaq.2023.11.010
    引用本文: 侯恩科,荣统瑞,卫勇锋,等. 基于LSSA-BP神经网络的煤层瓦斯含量预测方法研究[J]. 煤矿安全,2023,54(11):55−61. doi: 10.13347/j.cnki.mkaq.2023.11.010
    HOU Enke, RONG Tongrui, WEI Yongfeng, et al. Research on coalbed gas content prediction method based on LSSA-BP neural network[J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2023, 54(11): 55−61. doi: 10.13347/j.cnki.mkaq.2023.11.010
    Citation: HOU Enke, RONG Tongrui, WEI Yongfeng, et al. Research on coalbed gas content prediction method based on LSSA-BP neural network[J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2023, 54(11): 55−61. doi: 10.13347/j.cnki.mkaq.2023.11.010

    基于LSSA-BP神经网络的煤层瓦斯含量预测方法研究

    Research on coalbed gas content prediction method based on LSSA-BP neural network

    • 摘要: 为提高煤层瓦斯含量预测的精准性和可靠性,提出基于Logistic混沌映射改进的麻雀搜索算法优化BP神经网络的煤层瓦斯含量预测模型(LSSA-BP模型)。先通过灰色关联分析法(GRA)筛选瓦斯含量的主控因素作为LSSA-BP预测模型的输入层节点数,后利用Logistic混沌映射初始化麻雀种群以增加种群多样性,再采用LSSA对BP神经网络的权值和阈值进行优化,解决了单一BP模型收敛速度慢和易陷入局部极小的问题;通过模型应用,将LSSA-BP、SSA-BP和BP模型的预测结果进行对比。结果表明:LSSA-BP预测模型的平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方误差(MSE)、均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)分别为0.3469 m3/t、0.1721 m3/t、0.4149 m3/t和27.4036%,均优于其他模型,提高了煤层瓦斯含量预测的准确性和稳定性。

       

      Abstract: In order to improve the accuracy and reliability of coal seam gas content prediction, this paper proposed the coal seam gas content prediction model (LSSA-BP model) based on Logistic chaotic mapping improved sparrow search algorithm to optimize BP neural network. Firstly, the main control factors of gas content were selected using grey correlation analysis (GRA) as the node number of the input layer of the LSSA-BP prediction model. Then, the sparrow population was initialized by Logistic chaotic mapping to increase the diversity of the population. The problems of slow convergence rate and easy to fall into local minimum of single BP model are solved. Through model application, the prediction results of LSSA-BP, SSA-BP and BP models are compared. The results show that: the mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of LSSA-BP prediction model were 0.346 9 m3/t, 0.172 1 m3/t, 0.414 9 m3/t and 27.4036%, respectively, which were better than other models. The accuracy and stability of coal seam gas content prediction are improved.

       

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