姚庆国, 徐翠翠, 张学睦. 基于失衡系数的煤炭企业安全投资决策评估模型[J]. 煤矿安全, 2017, 48(6): 238-241.
    引用本文: 姚庆国, 徐翠翠, 张学睦. 基于失衡系数的煤炭企业安全投资决策评估模型[J]. 煤矿安全, 2017, 48(6): 238-241.
    YAO Qingguo, XU Cuicui, ZHANG Xuemu. Safety Investment Decision Evaluation Model for Coal Enterprises Based on Disproportion Factor[J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2017, 48(6): 238-241.
    Citation: YAO Qingguo, XU Cuicui, ZHANG Xuemu. Safety Investment Decision Evaluation Model for Coal Enterprises Based on Disproportion Factor[J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2017, 48(6): 238-241.

    基于失衡系数的煤炭企业安全投资决策评估模型

    Safety Investment Decision Evaluation Model for Coal Enterprises Based on Disproportion Factor

    • 摘要: 利用SPSS距离分析对10个投资水平相当的煤炭企业展开投资决策分析,发现煤炭企业安全投资对安全设备改造费、安全技术措施费和安全工程经费往往采用同增同减的“捆绑”投资,而对于其他软件方面的投资,随意性太大。基于实物期权思想,引入失衡系数(Disproportion Factor)的概念,依照事故特点,综合考虑投资有效性、事故发生概率、严重程度、投资者风险态度等因素,建立了NPV-DF决策评估算法,并构建了煤炭企业安全措施投资评估体系,通过反复进行技术和财务评估,最终建立最佳投资模式。

       

      Abstract: SPSS distance analysis was used for investment decision analysis of 10 enterprises that have close investment scale. We find that coal enterprises often increase safety equipment renovation cost, safety technology and measures cost and safety engineering cost at the same time, but the enterprises are random in “software investment”. Based on real options theory, we introduce the concept of disproportion factor, comprehensively consider investment efficiency, accident probability, accident severity and the attitude of decision-maker, and build NPV-DF decision evaluation algorithm and safety measure investment evaluation system. Through repeated technical and financial evaluation, we ultimately establish optimal investment model.

       

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