Abstract: According to the characteristics of large buried depth, high mining height, complex surface topography and long observation time of Guojiahe Coal Mine, by means of establishing the surface observation station and combined with the surface observation results, it is calculated and given that the relevant parameters of surface movement deformation and surface movement time in fully mechanized caving mining of Guojiahe Coal Mine. Combined with the slope stability analysis and computer inversion simulation, the probability integral parameters are corrected. The results show that the surface area of Guojiahe Coal Mine is loess gully region, the stability of the slope and the additional slip have a great influence on the parameters of the surface rock movement, the effects of slope stability and additional slip should be considered, especially in calculating the surface subsidence coefficient, the surface subsidence and horizontal movement.