Abstract: To quantitatively evaluate the reliability of gas geological methods for predicting coal and gas outburst areas, based on the assumption that the prediction model is correct, the uncertainty of prediction index is quantitatively described by uncertainty of measurement, combined with the reliability theory, the reliability prediction method of gas geological method for coal and gas outburst region prediction is proposed. The uncertainty of prediction index is increased to explore the influence of fluctuation of uncertainty of prediction index on the reliability of prediction results. The results show that when the uncertainty of prediction index increases, the reliability of prediction results decreases. To ensure that the prediction method maintains at a high level of reliability, the stability of the obtained index data should be guaranteed.