基于多元融合算法的矿井油型气含量预测

    Prediction of oil-type gas content in mines based on multivariate fusion algorithm

    • 摘要: 为了提高矿井油型气含量的预测精度和准确性,提出一种基于多元数据融合的精准判定方法。基于影响油型气含量的主要因素,收集了27组矿井实际测量数据,使用XGBoost算法筛选出了埋深、顶底板岩性、褶皱及孔隙率作为关键特征,并对其进行标准化处理,以确保不同量纲的数据在建模过程中能够得到合理的融合;采用克里金插值法、最小二乘支持向量机、多层感知器和梯度提升回归树4种经典的机器学习算法进行初步预测,针对油型气含量这一回归问题进行了比较分析。结果表明:梯度提升回归树算法在预测性能上表现最佳,其判定系数达到0.987,归一化均方误差在0.001~0.010之间,总信息准则在0.019~0.046之间;结合Stacking堆叠算法进一步提升预测精度,Stacking方法将多个基学习器的预测结果作为新特征进行融合,并在此基础上,利用改进的鲸鱼优化算法对各基学习器的权重进行优化;为了进一步提升模型的预测能力,引入双向长短期记忆网络,通过元学习机制对基学习器的预测结果进行深度学习,以捕捉更复杂的非线性关系和时序信息,构建了最终的融合模型,模型在测试集上的表现显著优于传统的单一算法;模型预测平均绝对误差的平均值为0.116 m3/t,归一化均方误差平均值为0.006,总信息准则平均值为0.004,判定系数高于0.98,显示出其在矿井油型气含量预测中的高精度和稳定性。

       

      Abstract: In order to improve the prediction precision and accuracy of oil-type gas content in mines, we propose an accurate determination method based on multivariate data fusion. Based on the main factors affecting the oil-type gas content, and 27 sets of actual measurement data from the mine were collected, and the XGBoost algorithm was used to screen out buried depth, roof and floor lithology, fold and porosity as the key features which were standardized to ensure that the data with different magnitudes could be reasonably fused in the modeling process. Four classical machine learning algorithms, namely, Kriging interpolation, least squares support vector machine, multilayer perception and gradient boosted regression tree, were used for preliminary prediction, and comparative analysis was carried out for the regression problem of oil-type gas content. The results show that the gradient boosting regression tree algorithm performs best in terms of prediction performance, with a coefficient of determination of 0.987, a normalized mean square error between 0.001 and 0.010, and a total information criterion between 0.019 and 0.046. The prediction accuracy is further improved by combining the Stacking algorithm. The Stacking method fuses the prediction results of multiple base learners as new features by using an improved whale optimization algorithm to optimize the weights of each base learner. In order to further improve the prediction ability of the model, a bidirectional long and short-term memory network is introduced, and the final fusion model is constructed through a meta-learning mechanism to deeply learn the prediction results of the base learners in order to capture more complex nonlinear relationships and temporal information. The fusion model significantly outperforms the traditional single algorithm on the test set. The average absolute error of model prediction is 0.116 m3/t, the average value of the normalized mean square error is 0.006, the average value of the total information criterion is 0.004, and the coefficient of determination is higher than 0.98, which shows its high accuracy and stability in the prediction of oil-type gas content in mines.

       

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