基于改进脆弱性指数法的采前煤层底板突水风险评价

    Risk assessment of coal seam floor water burst based on improved vulnerability index method

    • 摘要: 煤层底板突水是煤矿生产的重大安全隐患之一。综合防控过程中,底板突水风险评价是防控地质工程决策与开展关键过程的重要参考依据。由于传统脆弱性指数法侧重不同隐蔽致灾地质因素,导致其产生可信度差异大、评价结果趋重的缺陷,因此提出了基于DS证据理论的脆弱性指数法采前底板突水风险评价方法。该方法以回采工作面地质构造探测结果与底板突水主控因素为研究对象,首先采用DS证据理论Dempster合成规则,对不同探测方法下获取的回采工作面采前导水地质构造解释可信度进行量化,将量化后得到的DS融合值作为脆弱性指数系数,进而使用层次分析法计算回采工作面采前底板突水主控因素权重;最后根据底板突水主控因素权重及导水地质构造解释可信度,计算各主控因素进行复合叠加脆弱性指数。在鄂尔多斯某矿61304工作面防治水实践过程中,以奥灰含水层富水性、奥灰含水层水压、陷落柱边界及断层线分布图等7种底板突水主控因素为例,获取各主控因素权重,将各主控因素权重进行归一化处理后,采用加权求和获取61304工作面采前底板突水脆弱性分区图,并对底板突水风险进行评价。后期安全回采过程证明了DS证据理论的脆弱性指数法的科学性与可行性,对矿井回采工作面采前底板突水的预防具有一定的现实意义。

       

      Abstract: The coal seam floor water burst has an inevitable impact on the safety production of coal mines. To prevent the occurrence of coal seam floor water burst in advance, effective risk assessment of coal seam floor water burst before mining can provide safety assurance for coal mining to a certain extent. Due to the fact that the traditional vulnerability index method focuses on different concealed disaster-causing geological factors, it leads to the drawbacks of large differences in credibility and increasingly repetitive evaluation results, a vulnerability index method based on DS evidence theory is proposed for coal seam floor water burst risk assessment. This method takes the main controlling factors of coal seam floor water burst from the bottom plate of the mining face and the geological structure of water diversion as the research object. Firstly, the Dempster synthesis rule of DS evidence theory is used to quantify the credibility of the interpretation of water diversion geological structure in the mining face obtained under different detection methods. The quantified DS fusion value is used as the vulnerability index coefficient; next, use the analytic hierarchy process to calculate the weight of the main control factors for coal seam floor water burst from the bottom plate of the mining face before mining; finally, the vulnerability index is calculated by composite superposition of the main control factors of coal seam floor water burst from the bottom plate and considering the credibility of the interpretation of water conducting geological structures; taking 7 main controlling factors for coal seam floor water burst from the bottom plate of the 61304 working face in a certain mine in Ordos as examples, including the water richness of Ordovician limestone aquifer, water pressure of the aquifer, boundary of collapse columns, and distribution map of fault lines, the weight of each main controlling factor was obtained. After normalizing the weight of each main controlling factor, an added weight sum was used to obtain the vulnerability zoning map for coal seam floor water burst from the bottom plate of the 61304 working face before mining, and the risk of coal seam floor water burst from the bottom plate was evaluated. The research results have proven the scientificity and feasibility of the vulnerability index method based on the DS evidence theory, which has a reference and guiding role in preventing coal seam floor water burst from the bottom plate of the mining face before mining, and has certain practical significance.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回