基于DBO-BP神经网络的采空区煤温预测方法及应用

    Prediction method and application of coal temperature in goaf based on DPO-BP neural network

    • 摘要: 矿井煤自燃防控的关键手段之一是预测采空区煤自然发火温度。为了更加准确地对采空区煤自然发火温度进行预测预警,采集枣泉煤矿2#煤层煤样进行自燃特性试验,采集试验得到的数据,记录煤样在氧化升温过程中释放的O2、CO、CH4、CO2、C2H4和C2H6体积分数的变化,将上述标志气体体积分数作为输入数据,将对应的煤样氧化温度作为输出数据,按照比例选取训练集和测试集,利用python软件建立了一种基于BP神经网络的煤自燃预测模型。采用新型群智能蜣螂优化算法对BP神经网络的各项超参数进行优化,建立了参数优化的DBO-BP预测模型,并将预测结果与粒子群算法(PSO-BP)、遗传算法(GA-BP)和麻雀搜索算法(SSA-BP)的各项性能指标进行对比分析。结果表明:DBO-BP、SSA-BP、GA-BP、PSO-BP对BP神经网络预测模型进行超参数优化后的测试阶段平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)分别为6.97%、8.63%、7.88%、8.18%;回归系数R2分别为0.976 3、0.966 8、0.970 1、0.969 0,其中DBO-BP模型的MAPE值最小,R2最接近1,证明了DBO-BP预测模型收敛速度更快,求解精准度更高,具有更高的预测精度和鲁棒性。基于DBO-BP模型对枣泉煤矿150202工作面采空区遗煤氧化温度进行预测,根据该模型的预测误差得到预测温度与现场实测温度的相对误差为6.97%,采用DBO算法优化后的模型在预测遗煤氧化升温方面精准度较高。

       

      Abstract: One of the key means of preventing and controlling spontaneous combustion of coal in mines is to predict the natural ignition temperature of coal in the goaf. In order to more accurately predict the natural ignition temperature of the coal in the mining area, coal samples from the 2# coal seam of Zaoquan Mine were collected for the spontaneous combustion characterization experiment. The data obtained from the experiments were collected to record the changes in the volume fractions of O2, CO, CH4, CO2, C2H4 and C2H6 gases released from the coal samples during the oxidation heating process. Taking the above marker gas volume fractions as input data and the corresponding oxidation temperatures of the coal samples as output data, a BP neural network-based coal spontaneous combustion prediction model was established using python software by selecting the training set and test set according to the ratio. A novel swarm intelligent dung beetle optimization algorithm was used to optimize the hyperparameters of the BP neural network, and the parameter-optimized DBO-BP prediction model was established, and the prediction results were compared and analyzed with the performance indexes of the particle swarm algorithm (PSO-BP), the genetic algorithm (GA-BP) and the sparrow search algorithm (SSA-BP). The results show that the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) in the test phase after hyper-parameter optimization of the BP neural network prediction models by DBO-BP, SSA-BP, GA-BP and PSO-BP are 6.97%, 8.63%, 7.88% and 8.18%, respectively; the regression coefficients R2 are 0.976 3, 0.966 8, 0.970 1, 0.969 0, in which the MAPE value of DBO-BP model is the smallest and the R2 is the closest to 1. It proves that the DBO-BP prediction model has faster convergence speed, higher solution accuracy, higher prediction accuracy and robustness. Based on the DPO-BP model, the oxidation temperature of the left coal in the goaf of 150202 working face of Zaoquan Coal Mine is predicted. According to the prediction error of the model, the relative error between the predicted temperature and the field measured temperature is 6.97%. The optimized model using the DBO algorithm has a high accuracy in predicting the oxidation temperature of the left coal.

       

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