基于TCN−LSTM模型的综采工作面顶板来压位置和强度预测

    Prediction of roof weighting position and intensity in fully mechanized mining face based on TCN-LSTM model

    • 摘要: 当前,顶板来压预测模型主要依赖于液压支架立柱压力传感器采集的数据,并通常采用时间序列分析方法,以时间为横坐标进行预测。然而,这种方法难以有效表征顶板来压的空间位置特征,限制了预测结果在工程应用中的准确性和适用性。为解决这一问题,提出了一种基于时间卷积神经网络(TCN)与长短时记忆网络(LSTM)相结合的综采工作面顶板来压位置及强度预测模型。该方法首先基于液压支架立柱压力数据,提取每个割煤循环结束时的循环末阻力,并进一步结合液压支架位移数据,确定相应时刻的支架位移信息。通过这种方式,可获得随开采距离变化的循环末阻力序列,从而在时间维度之外,引入空间位置特征,增强对顶板来压的空间分布预测能力。随后,采用TCN−LSTM混合神经网络模型对处理后的数据进行特征提取与建模,实现对顶板来压位置及强度的精准预测。实验结果表明,相较于粒子群优化反向传播(PSO−BP)神经网络、LSTM模型及Transformer模型,所提出的TCN−LSTM模型在预测精度方面具有显著优势,顶板来压位置和强度预测的均方根误差分别降低了37%、30%和42%,平均绝对误差分别降低了37%、31%和40%。研究表明,该方法能够有效提高综采工作面顶板来压预测的准确性。

       

      Abstract: At present, roof weighting prediction models mainly rely on data collected by hydraulic support leg pressure sensors and usually adopt time series analysis methods for prediction with time as the horizontal coordinate. However, such methods can hardly effectively characterize the spatial location characteristics of roof weighting, which limits the accuracy and applicability of prediction results in engineering applications. To solve this problem, a prediction model for roof weighting location and intensity in fully mechanized mining faces based on the combination of temporal convolutional network (TCN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) network is proposed. Firstly, based on the hydraulic support leg pressure data, the cycle-end resistance at the end of each coal cutting cycle is extracted, and the support displacement information at the corresponding moment is further determined combined with hydraulic support displacement data. In this way, the cycle-end resistance sequence varying with mining distance can be obtained, so that spatial location features are introduced in addition to the time dimension to enhance the ability to predict the spatial distribution of roof weighting. Subsequently, the TCN-LSTM hybrid neural network model is used to conduct feature extraction and modeling on the processed data, so as to realize accurate prediction of roof weighting location and intensity. The experimental results show that compared with the particle swarm optimization back propagation (PSO-BP) neural network, the LSTM model and the Transformer model, the proposed TCN-LSTM model has significant advantages in prediction accuracy. The root mean square errors of roof weighting location and intensity prediction are reduced by 37%, 30% and 42% respectively, and the mean absolute errors are reduced by 37%, 31% and 40% respectively. The research indicates that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of roof weighting prediction in fully mechanized mining faces.

       

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