基于SA−PSO−MLP模型的露天矿边坡变形预测

    Slope deformation prediction of open-pit mine based on SA-PSO-MLP combined model

    • 摘要: 准确预测露天矿边坡变形可以为露天矿山的安全生产保驾护航。传统边坡变形预测模型在面对参数敏感性时往往存在较大的缺陷,影响了预测结果的准确性和可靠性。为有效解决这一问题,基于黑山头露天矿历史边坡位移数据的时序特征和非线性演化规律,提出了一种新型的边坡变形预测方法(简称SA−PSO−MLP模型)。该模型结合了模拟退火算法(Simulated Annealing,SA)和粒子群优化算法(Particle Swarm Optimization,PSO),对多层感知机(Multi−Layer Perceptron,MLP)模型进行了调优。具体来说,该模型通过SA算法改进PSO的全局搜索能力,优化了MLP的初始权值和阈值参数,提高了模型的预测准确度和稳定性。为验证该方法的有效性与可行性,对比分析了MLP、遗传算法优化的反向传播神经网络模型(GA−BP)、支持向量回归模型(Support Vector Regression,SVR)、灰色预测模型GM(1,1)、粒子群优化算法调优后的多层感知机模型(PSO−MLP)和SA−PSO−MLP这6种模型。试验结果表明:SA−PSO−MLP模型的均方误差(MSE)为0.509 9,低于其他5种模型的误差值;决定系数( R^2 )为0.922 9,较对比模型提升0.17% ~ 21.40%,表现出显著的预测优势。研究证明,SA−PSO−MLP模型通过双重优化机制有效克服了传统模型在参数敏感性方面的不足,并能够在仅依赖单一历史边坡位移数据的情况下提升预测精度,为露天矿边坡变形预测提出了新的思路和方法。

       

      Abstract: Accurate prediction of open-pit mine slope deformation can safeguard the safe production of open-pit mines. Traditional slope deformation prediction models often have significant deficiencies in dealing with parameter sensitivity, which affects the accuracy and reliability of the prediction results. To effectively address this issue, this study proposes a novel slope deformation prediction method (referred to as the SA-PSO-MLP model) based on the time series characteristics and nonlinear evolution laws of historical slope displacement data from Heishantou Open-pit Mine. This model combines the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm and the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to optimize the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) model. Specifically, the model improves the global search ability of PSO through the SA algorithm, optimizes the initial weights and threshold parameters of MLP, and enhances the prediction accuracy and stability of the model. To verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this method, this paper compares and analyzes six models: MLP, genetic algorithm-optimized backpropagation neural network model (GA-BP), support vector regression model (SVR), grey prediction model GM(1,1), particle swarm optimization-optimized multi-layer perceptron model (PSO-MLP), and SA-PSO-MLP. The experimental results show that the mean squared error (MSE) of the SA-PSO-MLP model is 0.509 9, which is lower than the error values of the other five models; the coefficient of determination is 0.922 9, which is 0.17 to 21.40 percentage points higher than that of the comparison models, demonstrating a significant predictive advantage. The research proves that the SA-PSO-MLP model effectively overcomes the shortcomings of traditional models in terms of parameter sensitivity through a dual optimization mechanism and can improve the prediction accuracy by relying solely on single historical slope displacement data, providing new idea and method for the prediction of open-pit mine slope deformation.

       

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