基于WOA−LSTM模型和SBAS−InSAR技术的矿区地表沉陷监测与预测

    Monitoring and prediction of mining area surface subsidence using SBAS-InSAR optimized by WOA-LSTM

    • 摘要: 在传统的矿区开采沉陷监测工作中,存在诸多问题,如需要投入大量的设备和人力、监测数据点的密度较低、实时性欠佳,并且难以对未来的沉陷情况进行有效预测。为解决这些问题,提出一种融合技术方法,即基于短基线集合成孔径雷达干涉测量(Small Baseline Subset−Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar, SBAS−InSAR)技术、鲸鱼优化算法(Whale Optimization Algorithm,WOA)与长短期记忆网络(Long Short−Term Memory,LSTM)的矿区开采沉陷监测与预测方法。以山西省临汾市回坡底煤矿作为研究对象,通过SBAS−InSAR技术处理61景影像,获取了2022−11—2025−02的年均下沉速率及垂直累计下沉值。结果表明:矿区地表沉陷呈现显著空间异质性,其中最大年平均下沉速率达−81.71 mm/a,至2025年1月最大垂直累计下沉值达−158.94 mm。针对研究区8个沉降显著特征点,构建WOA−LSTM预测模型,对未来6期沉陷数据进行预测:通过WOA算法对LSTM关键超参数进行全局优化,采用滑动窗口技术构建时间序列样本,将WOA−LSTM与鲸鱼算法(WOA)优化门控循环单元(Gated Recurrent Unit, GRU)和LSTM模型对比。研究结果表明:WOA−LSTM模型的平均绝对误差(MAE)相较于LSTM模型降低64.8%,相较于WOA−GRU模型降低44.5%;均方根误差(RMSE)相较于LSTM模型降低62.5%,相较于WOA−GRU模型降低41.8%,显著提升了沉陷预测精度,可实现对采空区沉陷漏斗扩展趋势的前瞻性研判,助力矿区提前制定针对性防控措施。

       

      Abstract: Traditional mining subsidence monitoring faces many drawbacks, including massive equipment and manpower investment, low density of monitoring sampling points, poor real-time performance, and difficulty in effectively predicting future subsidence evolution. To address these problems, an integrated technical method is proposed for mining subsidence monitoring and prediction, which combines Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-InSAR), Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. Taking the Huipodi Coal Mine in Linfen City, Shanxi Province as the research area, 61 scenes of remote sensing images were processed by SBAS-InSAR technology to obtain the annual average subsidence rate and vertical cumulative subsidence from November 2022 to February 2025. The results show that the surface subsidence in the mining area presents obvious spatial heterogeneity. The maximum annual average subsidence rate reaches −81.71 mm/a, and the maximum vertical cumulative subsidence reaches −158.94 mm by January 2025. A WOA-LSTM prediction model is established for eight typical characteristic points with significant subsidence in the study area to predict the subsidence values of the next six periods. The WOA algorithm is adopted to globally optimize the key hyperparameters of the LSTM network, and the sliding window technique is used to construct time series samples. The WOA-LSTM model is compared with the Whale Optimization Algorithm-Gated Recurrent Unit (WOA-GRU) and single LSTM models. The results indicate that compared with the LSTM model, the mean absolute error (MAE) of the WOA-LSTM model is reduced by 64.8%, and decreased by 44.5% compared with the WOA-GRU model. In terms of root mean square error (RMSE), the WOA-LSTM model is 62.5% lower than the LSTM model and 41.8% lower than the WOA-GRU model. The proposed model significantly improves the accuracy of subsidence prediction, enables prospective judgment on the expansion trend of subsidence funnels in goaf areas, and supports mining areas to formulate targeted prevention and control measures in advance.

       

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