基于CNN-KAN混合模型的露天矿多源信息融合滑坡预测研究

    Landslide prediction in open-pit mines based on a CNN-KAN hybrid model with multi-source information fusion

    • 摘要: 降雨是触发露天矿滑坡的重要诱因,其渐进变形特征与季节性降雨过程存在显著关联。针对传统方法在揭示降雨−位移响应机制及动态预测能力上的不足,构建了一种融合多源信息的卷积神经网络(Convolutional Neural Network,CNN)与Kolmogorov-Arnold 网络(Kolmogorov-Arnold Network,KAN)混合预测模型。以内蒙古地区贺斯格乌拉南露天煤矿南排土场边坡变形为研究对象,基于Pearson相关性分析定量揭示了边坡位移与降雨因子的响应规律,确定了南帮边坡变形的最优降雨影响周期,利用已有降雨量及位移监测数据对预测模型进行训练验证,并在选取的GNSS监测点上模拟了不同降雨场景下(降低10%降雨强度、增加10%降雨强度)边坡长期位移演化趋势。结果表明:①在相同数据集上,与传统预测模型相比,构建的CNN-KAN混合模型在降雨诱发的边坡变形预测场景下具有更高的准确性;②季节性降雨对边坡变形存在滞后效应,当累积时间达到11 d时,南排土场边坡位移−降雨相关系数下降至0.2以下;③模型预测显示,当降雨强度增加10%时,边坡将进入加速蠕变阶段,累计位移值可达558.12 mm,南帮边坡存在二次滑坡发育趋势。

       

      Abstract: Rainfall is a key trigger for landslide disasters in open-pit mines, and its gradual deformation characteristics exhibit a significant coupling relationship with seasonal rainfall processes. To address the deficiencies of traditional methods in analyzing the rainfall-displacement correlation mechanism and predicting dynamic trends, a hybrid prediction model of convolutional neural network (CNN) and Kolmogorov Arnold network (KAN) integrating multi-source information is established. Taking the slope deformation of the southern dump in south Hesigewula Open-pit Coal Mine in Inner Mongolia as a background, the response relationship between slope displacement and rainfall factors is quantitatively revealed based on Pearson correlation analysis. The optimal rainfall influence period affecting the deformation of the southern slope is determined. The established prediction model is trained and validated using existing rainfall and displacement monitoring data. The long-term displacement evolution trend of the slope under different rainfall scenarios (reducing rainfall intensity by 10% and increasing rainfall intensity by 10%) is simulated at selected GNSS monitoring points. The results show that: ① compared with traditional models, the proposed CNN-KAN hybrid prediction model demonstrates superior accuracy in predicting rainfall-induced slope deformation scenarios on the same dataset; ② seasonal rainfall exhibits a lag effect on slope deformation, with the displacement-rainfall correlation coefficient at the south dumping slope decreasing below 0.2 when cumulative precipitation time reach 11 days; ③ according to the model’s prediction, when the rainfall intensity increases by 10%, the slope enters an accelerated creep stage, and the cumulative displacement value can reach 558.12 mm, and the southern slope shows a significant trend of secondary landslide development.

       

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