基于ICEEMDAN−CNN−BiLSTM−XGBoost的滑坡位移双层融合预测模型

    A two-layer fusion prediction model for landslide displacement based on ICEEMDAN-CNN-BiLSTM-XGBoost

    • 摘要: 针对现有滑坡位移预测模型存在的过于依赖环境影响因子以及对波动项位移挖掘不充分的问题,提出了一种基于滑坡位移时间序列分解的双层融合预测模型。该模型首先采用改进的自适应噪声完备集合经验模态分解(ICEEMDAN)方法对滑坡位移时间序列进行分解,得到若干不同频率的本征模函数(IMF)分量;随后通过高斯滤波和人工提取时域、频域等非线性特征,以加速模型训练并降低对数据量和算力的依赖。在第1层预测中,分别采用误差反向传播神经网络(BP神经网络)、极限学习机(ELM)、长短期记忆网络(LSTM)以及卷积神经网络−双向长短期记忆网络(CNN−BiLSTM)4种机器学习算法作为基学习器,对各个IMF分量进行初步预测,并利用冠豪猪优化(CPO)算法进行超参数优化。在第2层融合中,分别使用Ridge回归和XGBoost回归作为元学习器,对第1层各模型的输出进行特征融合,构建最终的滑坡位移预测模型。试验结果表明:在8种组合模型中,CNN−BiLSTM−XGBoost表现最优,其平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.072 mm,均方根误差(RMSE)为0.097 mm,决定系数(R2)达到0.9981,体现出较高的预测精度和稳定性。在此基础上,通过对CNN−BiLSTM−XGBoost模型进行消融试验,评估了CNN、BiLSTM和XGBoost 3个组件对模型性能的独立贡献,结果验证了CNN−BiLSTM组合相比单一CNN或BiLSTM模型的优越性以及CNN−BiLSTM−XGBoost双层学习器模型相比CNN−BiLSTM单层学习器模型的必要性。

       

      Abstract: A two-layer fusion prediction model based on landslide displacement time series decomposition is proposed to address the problems of existing landslide displacement prediction models which rely too much on the environmental influence factors and do not mine the fluctuating term displacements sufficiently. The landslide displacement time series is decomposed using the improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) method, and a number of intrinsic mode function (IMF) components with different frequencies are obtained. The model training is accelerated by Gaussian filtering and manual extraction of nonlinear features in the time and frequency domains to reduce the model dependence on the amount of data and arithmetic power. Four machine learning algorithms, namely, error back propagation neural network (BP neural network), extreme learning machine (ELM), long-short-term memory network (LSTM), and convolutional neural network-bidirectional long-short-term memory network (CNN-BiLSTM), are used as the first-layer learners, to make the preliminary prediction of each IMF component separately, and the hyper-parameter optimization is performed using the crested porcupine optimization (CPO) algorithm. For the outputs of the first layer learners, the Ridge regression model and XGBoost regression model were used as the second layer learners for feature fusion, respectively, to construct the final landslide displacement fusion prediction model. The results show that the CNN-BiLSTM-XGBoost model performs the best in prediction performance among the above eight combined models, with the mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.072 mm, the root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.097 mm, and the coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.998 1, which shows its high accuracy and stability in landslide displacement prediction. On this basis, ablation experiments are conducted for the CNN-BiLSTM-XGBoost model to evaluate the independent contributions of the three algorithms, CNN, BiLSTM and XGBoost, to the model performance, and to demonstrate the superiority of the CNN-BiLSTM combination algorithm compared to the single CNN or BiLSTM algorithm and the CNN-BiLSTM-XGBoost dual-layer learner model over the CNN-BiLSTM single layer learner model is necessary.

       

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