基于GWO−iTransformer−SVM模型的矿井工作面涌水量预测

    Water inflow prediction of mine working face based on GWO-iTransformer-SVM model

    • 摘要: 矿井涌水已成为制约我国中西部地区煤炭资源开发的主要问题之一。为构建适用于西部受巨厚砂岩水害威胁矿井工作面的涌水量预测模型,基于当前时间序列处理领域主流的Transformer模型优化变体——iTransformer模型,结合支持向量机(support vector machines,SVM),同时采用灰狼优化算法(Grey Wolf Optimizer,GWO)对模型训练过程中的参数与权重进行迭代寻优,最终提出GWO−iTransformer−SVM组合预测模型。该模型首先输入矿井工作面涌水量数据,随后分别在iTransformer和SVM 2个模型上进行训练,通过GWO算法对2个模型训练与加权过程中的参数与权值进行迭代寻优,最终输出模型评价指标与涌水量预测结果。将GWO−iTransformer−SVM分别与GWO−iTransformer和iTransformer−SVM 2个模型相比发现,iTransformer加权SVM后,模型的泛化能力有一定的提升;经过GWO进行参数寻优后模型的预测准确性能也有一定的提升。GWO−iTransformer−SVM模型训练与预测结果显示,模型输出的训练集、验证集与测试集的平均绝对误差( E_\mathrmMAE )、平均绝对百分比误差( E_\mathrmMAPE )、均方根误差( E_\mathrmRMSE )和决定系数( R^2 )等指标均表现优良。其中,验证集与测试集的 E_\mathrmMAE 分别为28.69 m3/h和35.86 m3/h, E_\mathrmMAPE 分别为2.15%和2.16%, E_\mathrmRMSE 分别为34.20 m3/h和52.60 m3/h, R^2 分别为0.95和0.93。与其他模型相比,预测精度更高,有效避免了部分模型出现的完全不拟合现象。

       

      Abstract: Mine water inrush has become one of the major problems restricting coal resource development in central and western China. To establish a water inflow prediction model suitable for mine working faces threatened by ultra-thick sandstone water disasters in western China, an integrated prediction model named GWO-iTransformer-SVM is proposed by combining the iTransformer model, an optimized variant of the mainstream Transformer model in current time series processing, with support vector machines (SVM), and using the grey wolf optimizer (GWO) to iteratively optimize parameters and weights during model training. The model first takes water inflow data of mine working faces as input, then conducts training on the iTransformer and SVM models respectively. The GWO algorithm is applied to iteratively optimize parameters and weights in the training and weighting processes of the two models, and finally outputs model evaluation indicators and water inflow prediction results. Compared with the GWO-iTransformer and iTransformer-SVM models, the generalization ability of the model is improved to a certain extent after iTransformer is weighted with SVM, and the prediction accuracy is also enhanced after parameter optimization via GWO. The training and prediction results of the GWO-iTransformer-SVM model show that the model achieves excellent performance in the training set, validation set and test set in terms of mean absolute error (EMAE), mean absolute percentage error (EMAPE), root mean square error (ERMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). Specifically, the EMAE of the validation set and test set is 28.69 m3/h and 35.86 m3/h, the EMAPE is 2.15% and 2.16%, the ERMSE is 34.20 m3/h and 52.60 m3/h, and the R2 is 0.95 and 0.93, respectively. Compared with other models, the proposed model features higher prediction accuracy and effectively avoids the complete non-fitting phenomenon observed in some models.

       

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