基于相对熵理论组合赋权的多含水层井田煤层底板突水风险评价

    Risk assessment of coal seam floor water inrush in multi-aquifer coalfield based on combined weighting with relative entropy theory

    • 摘要: 以横沟井田为研究对象,综合水文地质分析与水化学测试等手段,系统分析了煤层底板突水的充水水源及导水通道。通过同位素比值特征及水化学参数的空间分布特征分析,揭示了地表水与承压含水层的补给关系,明确了太原组和奥陶系含水层为S组煤层底板主要突水水源,确定了断层、陷落柱及封闭不良钻孔等构造因素对突水通道的影响,为突水风险评价提供了关键地质依据。同时,提出了一种基于改进层次分析法(IAHP)、熵权法(EWM)与相对熵理论(K−L散度)的组合赋权模型。该方法通过乘积标度法优化主观权重分配,结合熵权法的客观数据特性,并引入相对熵理论构建目标函数求解最优组合权重,该模型有效平衡了专家经验与数据客观性,提升了权重分配的协调性与评价结果的可靠性。将组合权重与脆弱指数法、GIS空间插值技术相结合,绘制了S组煤层底板在太原组及奥陶系含水层影响下的突水脆弱性分区图。结果表明:S组煤层底板突水风险呈现显著空间异质性,煤层北部主要为脆弱区,南部及中部大部分区域为过渡区,东南部主要为较安全−相对安全区,在前期开采地段内大部分区域突水危险性较小;在太原组与奥陶系含水层作用下,超过80%的区域(过渡区及以上)面临不同程度的突水威胁。

       

      Abstract: Taking the Henggou Coalfield as the research object, the water filling sources and water conduction channels of coal seam floor water inrush were systematically analyzed by means of hydrogeological analysis and hydrochemical testing. Through the analysis of isotopic ratio characteristics and spatial distribution of hydrochemical parameters, the recharge relationship between surface water and confined aquifers was revealed. It is clarified that the Taiyuan Formation and Ordovician aquifers are the main water inrush sources of the S coal seam floor, and the influences of structural factors such as faults, collapse columns and poorly sealed boreholes on water inrush channels were determined, providing key geological basis for water inrush risk assessment. Meanwhile, a combined weighting model based on the improved analytic hierarchy process (IAHP), entropy weight method (EWM) and relative entropy theory (Kullback-Leibler divergence) is proposed. This method optimizes subjective weight distribution via the product scale method, combines the objective data characteristics of the entropy weight method, and introduces relative entropy theory to construct an objective function for solving the optimal combined weight. The model effectively balances expert experience and data objectivity, improving the coordination of weight distribution and the reliability of evaluation results. Combining the combined weights with the vulnerability index method and GIS spatial interpolation technology, the water inrush vulnerability zoning map of the S coal seam floor under the influence of the Taiyuan Formation and Ordovician aquifers was compiled. The results show that the water inrush risk of the S coal seam floor presents significant spatial heterogeneity: the northern part of the coal seam is mainly classified as vulnerable zone, most of the southern and central parts as transition zone, and the southeastern part as relatively safe to safe zone. Most of the previously mined areas have low water inrush risk. However, affected by the Taiyuan Formation and Ordovician aquifers, more than 80% of the area (transition zone and above) is threatened by water inrush to varying degrees.

       

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