煤矿顶板事故致因因素耦合效应研究

    Study on coupling effect of roof accident causative factors in coal mine

    • 摘要: 为预防煤矿顶板事故的发生,量化其致因因素的耦合度,收集120份煤矿顶板事故调查报告,利用扎根理论分析事故文本,从管理因素、技术因素、环境因素、物的因素、人为因素等方面,提取出55项煤矿顶板事故致因因素。界定了事故致因因素的耦合效应,引入耦合度的概念,归纳出煤矿顶板事故致因因素耦合类别;运用Gephi软件绘制煤矿顶板事故致因因素耦合网络模型,结合贝叶斯网络的基本思想,提出煤矿顶板事故致因因素耦合度量化方法,包含双因素耦合计算模型和多因素耦合度计算模型。实例应用结果表明:从双因素耦合度计算结果来看,4个事故致因因素耦合对的耦合度均高于0.4;从三因素的耦合度计算结果来看,6组三因素耦合集的耦合系数处于0.70~0.82之间;事故致因因素耦合概率大于原始值,事故致因因素的耦合度增加,这是由于事故致因因素耦合作用带来的不利影响,发生正向耦合,其中安全教育培训不到位、支护质量差、风险分析研判不到位、操作问题、隐患排查不到位、围岩应力集中、监测监控系统故障等因素具有较强的耦合性;参与事故致因因素耦合数量越多,事故致因因素的耦合系数越大,耦合效应越显著。

       

      Abstract: In order to prevent the occurrence of coal mine roof accidents, the coupling degree of causative factors in coal mine roof accidents is quantified. Collecting 120 coal mine roof accident investigation reports, using grounded theory to analyze the accident text, from the aspects of management factors, technical factors, environmental factors, physical factors, human factors, etc., we extracted 55 coal mine roof accident causative factors. The coupling effect of accident causative factors is defined, and the concept of coupling degree is introduced. Then, the coupling categories of coal mine roof accident factors are summarized. The Gephi software was used to draw the coupling network model of the cause-causing factors of coal mine roof accidents. Combined with the basic idea of Bayesian networks, a quantification method for the coupling degree of the cause-causing factors of coal mine roof accidents was proposed, including the two-factor coupling calculation model and the multi-factor coupling calculation model. Example application results demonstrate that the coupling degree of the four accident causative factors coupling pairs is higher than 0.4 from the two-factor coupling degree calculation results; according to the coupling degree calculation results of the three factors, the coupling coefficient of the six groups of three factors is between 0.7 and 0.82; coupling probability of accident causative factors is larger than the original value, and the coupling degree of accident causative factors increases, which is due to the adverse influence brought by the coupling effect of accident causative factors, indicating positive coupling. Among them, safety education and training are not in place, support quality is poor, risk analysis and judgment is not in place, operation problems, hidden trouble investigation is not in place, surrounding rock stress concentration, monitoring system failure and other factors have strong coupling. The more the number of coupling factors involved in the accident causes, the greater the coupling coefficient of the accident causes, and the more significant the coupling effect.

       

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